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Just thougt I'd share this little poem with you. Mark Moore wrote it. He's a forecaster with the Northwest Avalanche Center. I think the poem really tells the story about weather in the Cascades through the end of the year. As more people venture into the backcountry of the Cascades, avalanche incidents are increasing, so it's always wise to make sure you know the forecast and what it means before you head out into the snow. Earlier this month a Colorado snow-shoer was killed in an avalanche, even though the danger was listed only as "considerable". A very sober reminder of how tenuous snow safety can be. And with more heavy mountain snow coming, the avalanche danger in the Cascades will be high this weekend. It's especially important to take care when snow conditions are at their best for skiing and boarding, because most of our avalanches occur during or within 24 hours of a new snowfall.
See you on the slopes and have fun and be safe in the snow.
Matt Zaffino
KGW Chief Meteorologist
And now the poem. I took the liberty of titling it.
Cold Lang Snow Synes
By Mark Moore/Northwest Avalanche Center
http://www.nwac.us/
It's three days before the end of the year,
And recent snows have changed gloom to cheer...
With more on the way spirits are soaring-
For the weather ahead will be anything but boring.
After a quick time of drying, the westerlies arrive,
And tonight and Friday should shift park to drive;
Heavy snow, high winds, we'll break but not bend,
Just need to get through a brief warming trend.
The easterly flow will help near the crest,
And will minimize the rain as that's for the best,
As we close the year and start out '06,
The weekend ahead looks snowy and brisk...
So enjoy these storms and the ones next week,
But stay aware of the danger and don't slide down the peak-
Keep checking for clues wherever you go,
For it's hard to enjoy if you're under the snow.
What a wild week! Weatherwise we've gone from one extreme to the other. Icy and cold to wet and warm. I don't know about you but the wacky weather slowed down my holiday shopping. I've always been a last minute shopper, but now I'm really behind! Is it poor form to give gifts to loved ones unwrapped? Oh well at least daughter Karen & I managed to get the tree up. Now if I can just find a way to keep the outside lights from shorting out everytime a rain sqaull moves overhead! I keep saying I love Christmas, I love Christmas, Ho Ho Ho.
When Santa arrives in the Pacific Northwest He'll be wearing goretex. After a short break rain is returning, Chrstmas Eve & Christmas Day look to be wet.
Year in and year out there's a nearly a 60% chance of rain in Portland on Christmas day. this year will be true to form. Just in case you're wondering what's the chance of snow? Statistically less than 1%
If your heart set on a White Christmas and you want to stay in the Pacific Northwest,The Cascades above 6000ft. will have snow. In Eastern Oregon, try the Joesph & Enterprise area. Finally parts of Idaho and Montana above the 3000ft elevation are snow covered and will stay white through Christmas.
Merry Christmas to all &
to all a good day.
Dave Salesky
dsalesky@kgw.com
Glad that's over with! The transition from snow and ice was a bit messy but didn't take as long as I
orginally thought. East Multnomah County and the Gorge will be the only areas staying in the ice box
today. Rain has replaced the snow and temperatures are heading up.
Compared to the past couple of weeks it's going to feel like the tropics. Temperatures will be heading for the upper 40's this week. Christmas day might even bring a high in the 50's! (An early present from Santa) Sorry kids it's going to be a wet not white Christmas.
Those of you who are hoping to see Portland and the rest of the area looking like a winter wonderland, Keep hope alive. It's only December, something tells me we are going to see one or two more chances for snow to the valley floor this winter.
Dave Salesky
dsalesky@kgw.com
After days, no make that weeks our cold & dry weather pattern may come to an end soon. The problem
is it may get a bit messy before typical Oregon, (wet) weather returns. There is
a system brewing off the South Oregon Coast. I think it will come ashore near North Bend,
Saturday. The storm is going to be weak as it arrives over the Northwest part of Oregon on
Sunday. What moisture is left, which will not be a lot, could come down in the form of
sleet or freezing rain. As I write this blog late Friday
morning, my best case scenario, (err is that worst case) is that sometime Sunday afternoon or night we
pick up some light freezing rain or drizzle.
The cold dry east winds are going to help and hurt. Helping by
evaporating most of the precipitation before it reaches the ground.
The wind will make sure that what ever precipitation reaches the ground will likely be frozen or
quickly freeze on contact.
I think by Wednesday, 5 days from now, we'll be back into a typical wet weather pattern. As Betty Davis, once
said " fasten your seat belts it's going to be a bumpy ride".
Dave Saleskydsalesky@kgw.com
Yes it's true UFO's Unidentified Flying Objects have been reported over the Portland Metro Area! Authorities
report upon futher investigation the objects appear to resemble trash can lids... The numerous sightings
are confined to the area east of I-205 on both the Washington & Oregon sides of the Columbia River.
Oh ya, did I mention the east winds are back! After almost a 48 hour break the winds are howling again. From Cascade Locks to Troutdale winds will reach 35-45mph sustained. Gust could make it to 60mph. The strongest winds will be around the Rooster Rock and Corbett areas.
The good news is the wind will keep fog and freezing fog from forming on the eastside. Thursday I would expect to see more problems in wind sheltered areas with fog and freezing fog. The problems should be a little better since the winds will help dry out the atmoshpere and reduce the fog in many but not all areas. A lot of folks want to know when this pattern is going to end. My answer, not anytime soon. There are some signs the wet weather might return sometime next week.
By the way Wednesday is trash day in Troutdale
Davedsalesky@kgw.com
3 hours early Saturday, morning did more to put me in the holiday spirit and renew my faith in humanity than anything else this year. Let me explain Saturday I was scheduled to work the early shift for our KGW Great Toy Drive. It was a cold, dark & windy morning. The temperature in the 20's with the wind at 25-30mph windchills were in the teens. Driving to East Port Plaza my plan was to help set up the collection site, and possibly collect a few toys from early bird shoppers.That was the plan, the reality totally different! Not a few people had shown up to donate toys but dozens and dozens of people came by. At one point we had 8 or 9 cars backed up at the drop off area.
What tugged at my heart the most the people who did the majority of giving. I think many could have qualified for the toy give-a-way. They'd arrive braving the cold and wind, individuals and families stand in a line to put a toy or two in the Les Schwab van. Over and over I would hear, I can't give much but I want to help. They could have stayed at home in a warm bed on an early Saturday morning but didn't. They came out to help make someones life just a little bit
better.
To all of you who came out thank you ! Thank you for donations to the great toy drive. Thank for reminding me that most people are kind and generous souls, willing to help there neighbors when asked.If you want to help we 3 days left in our toy drive.
Speaking of Christmas, If you've not been up the Columbia River Gorge,
think about taking a drive up that way this week. The gorge is always a spectacular but right now some unusual sights can be seen! The icy temperatures and winds have turned the Latourell waterfall into an ice fall. Water seeping out of rocks along the Historic Columbia River Highway has created walls of ice.
The Pictures below were taken by Steve Pierce, of Vancouver, Sunday afternoon.
Enjoy
Dave
dsalesky@kgw.com
<
img alt="Roadside ice.jpg"
The Geminid Meteor Shower will hits its peak this week, sending streaks of light across our northwest skies. But, because of a nearly full moon, there's one specific time that will be the best for seeing this annual shower.
Tuesday December 13th
4:30 a.m. to About 7 a.m.
Look West
The moon will be down at that point and the sky will be dark, other than city lights. For a gallery of Geminid Meteors, including cool shots from past years, check out this link:
http://www.spaceweather.com/meteors/gallery_13dec04.htm
Hope you get a chance to see some meteors this week!
Bruce Sussman
"The temperature is freezing at my house right now...so how can the freezing level be higher than Mt. Hood? That doesn't make sense."
Maybe you asked that question during my forecast tonight. Some cities in the Willamette Valley were already freezing by 6:30p.m., yet I gave the freezing level as 11,500 feet. What gives?
Well, the elevation we give for the freezing level is actually the free air freezing level
That is, in a spot where the air does not touch anything, how high do you have to go before temperatures drop to 32 degrees? Tonight, the answer is 11,500 feet. That was determined by a weather balloon launched from Salem at four o'clock in the afternoon. That balloon traveled several miles up before it popped and then parachuted back to earth.
So what about the freezing temperatures at your house? Well most of the time, it's the chilly ground that actually cools our air closest to the surface where we live. And because that air is touching the ground, it is not the free air freezing level.
So that's the answer. Have a great weekend!
Meteorologist Bruce Sussman
Ok the skies are blue the winds, (at least today) are light and all is quiet in the weather world. So why is it that I just can't shake this worried feeling. Like when will the other shoe drop. I keep worrying that the longer we have this cold dry weather the rougher the transition out is going to be. I call this cold soaking. Temperatures at night are into the low 30's and 20's. High's are upper 30's and low 40's.
On the eastside of the Cascades there's a ton of snow on the ground. Radiational cooling will keep lows in the sub-zero range for the near future. I don't see any change is this pattern through at least the weekend maybe longer.
When this pattern breaks it could be messy! A low from the Gulf of Alaska could bring in a cold wet airmass, cold air from east of the Cascades comes west and POW snow in Portland. Or A somewhat warmer airmass arrives from the west or southwest, POW cold air drawn down the gorge, warm air rides over the top and a freezing rain event hits.
Good news neither scenario will happen anytime soon. So I'll drink more Malox and keep staring at the computer models and satellite images.
Dave Salesky
dsalesky@kgw.com
It's cold & windy but at least we don't have to break out the shovels & snow blowers. The picture below is Rick Jacobs, cabin near La Pine. Rick works here at the big 8ski. We call his cabin the Central Oregon Bureau. As you can see the bureau needs to be dug out. Much of the state east of the Cascades looks like this. Pretty as a Norman Rockwell painting. It's also keeping a lot of home owners busy clearing roofs and driveways. The Snow cover eastside is also keeping temperatures low. Radiational cooling at night has helped push low temperatures in the single digits. That cold air is also moving down the Gorge, chilling Portland and the North Willamette Valley. Complain all you want about the cold, my email is full of messages asking when it's going to warm up. The answer, not anytime soon. The good news is at least we don't have to shovel it. Well not yet anyway :-)
Stay Warm everybody
Dave
dsalesky@kgw.com
To parapharse Hanibal Smith from the A Team, " I love it when a forecast comes together." No snow or even mixed precipitation, just clouds and very cold east winds from the gorge. What moisture we have is staying in the sky as clouds.
Speaking of the winds no amount of goo or spray will keep your hair in place today. Trust me I know some folks around here who know all the secrets of keeping hair looking like well, TV anchorman's hair in all sorts of weather. The winds will continue, gusts have reached near 40mph in the Troutdale, Gresham & Corbett area. Combined with very cold air it's producing some bone chilling windchill temperatures.
Windchill is what the air feels like as it moves across exposed flesh. Windchill temperatures today have been in the 20's. Temperatures that low can cause hypothermia to begin to set in on a person in little more than half an hour.
Before you send the kids out to the bus stop or you go out for some christmas shopping, bundle up! I've included a chart that should help you compute the windchill temperature.
Warm Regards,
Dave Salesky
dsalesky@kgw.com
I admit it I'm a little gun shy. Here we go again. Cold air is pouring out of the Columbia River Gorge. A storm of the coast is headed our way. But wait this time there's a twist! I think a lot of the punch from the storm will weaken, most of what's left slides south. Hello Siskiyous. What moisture makes it to our area will be limited. Maybe some rain showers. Areas affected by the cold flow out of the gorge might see some rain and snow mixed. The closer you are to the Gorge the colder and drier the air will be. What moisture is left will likely be a skiff of snow here a flurry there.
I've included a look at the 700mb prog chart for Wednesday. It shows the areas with highest humidity ( more water in the atmosphere ) to the south.
So the bottom... Do I think we're going to see something out of this Likely very little if any. But I have to mention the possibility. Not just for CMA factor but because the possibility of snow slight as it is does exist. Please feel free to post your thoughts
email me
G'day
Dave Salesky
dsalesky@kgw.com
Ouch. That one hurt. Apologies to all for my forecast yesterday for snow today that never happened. And thanks for the interesting voicemails and emails. One voicemailer wondered if I had stock in Les Schwab Tires. One emailer suggested I wear a bunny suit on air next time I'm wrong. Interesting idea there. For all of you wondering what was I thinking, here’s a little insight. I've seen surprise Portland snowstorms with set-ups similar to this. There were a couple key factors on which I based my forecast. One was a process called evaporative cooling. When snow or rain falls into dry air below, some of it evaporates. Evaporation requires heat. Just think about a pot of water on a stove. If the stove is on, the water boils and evaporates away. In the case of evaporative cooling in the atmosphere, the stove, that is the heat source required to perform the evaporation, is the air into which the rain or snow is evaporating. This can cool that air (by taking heat out of it) very effectively and lower the freezing level, allowing snow to reach the ground. In one case like this back in the mid-90s, three inches of snow accumulated in Portland when the surface temperature was 40º. But in that case I suspect the air just above the surface was drier than it was today, which would've allowed for more evaporation. Strike One. The other key factor in my decision making process was the rate of precipitation. If it’s snowing hard aloft, there is more precipitation to evaporate on the way down, hence more cooling. It looked like we'd get some pretty serious precipitation rates based on the satellite imagery and the origin of the airmass coming in with this storm. The precipitation rates were very heavy, but they hit southern Oregon, not northern Oregon. Strike Two.
Everything else looked like a classic Portland snow set-up, with the very significant exception of the air mass east of the Cascades. I mentioned on the air that if that air had been of Arctic origin and was colder, this would've been a no-brainer snow forecast. As it was it was a borderline case, but I felt the two factors described above would overcome the marginally cold air coming through Gorge from the Columbia Basin. Strike Three.
So that's it. I learned a long time ago you're going to take some lumps weather forecasting. Rare events are difficult to forecast. We’ve seen a lot of Portland snowfall forecasts that have been wrong and a lot of Portland snowfalls not forecast at all. Every forecaster I know does his or her best job in every case. I've been on the other side of this coin, being the only one to hit a snow forecast. This feels worse than that felt good. Not that that matters or is any consolation to anyone who made plans based on my forecast.
A few emailers mentioned hype. If forecasting 2-6 inches of snow that didn't happen is hype for the simple reason that I was wrong, then I guess I'm guilty of hyping it. But I made my decision and went with it, based on what I thought was going to happen. There was no pressure from any source to hype the forecast for marketing reasons as one emailer suggested. Never in my 20 years of forecasting on television has that happened to me. If it ever does I'll have a much bigger decision on my hands than whether or not to forecast snow.
Thanks for watching KGW.
Sincerely,
Matt Zaffino
KGW Chief Meteorologist
May 2008
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