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« June 2006 | Main | June 2007 » October 17, 2006Wrap UpBoth candidates did great. The real winner is the Oregon voter. Ron was very effective at making this debate about Ted's record and leadership. Ted made some ground on Ron's credibility. Will the national political mood have an impact? Will Ted run some hard hitting ads? Will Ron have enough money to finish strong.-Tim ClosingGovernor -- attempt to characterize Ron as someone who supports "corporate elite" while the Governor wants to be identified with the broad middle of Oregonians -- really an appeal to the voter on grounds of: Do you really trust my opponent to be on your side... Clearly Ron had a better debate than the last one at City Club -- no knock-outs, but used the editorial endorsements as a validation of his credentials as the challenger ...on personality points and a couple of key zingers, there were real highlights for the governor in this debate and I think he will be successful in forcing voters to examine Saxton and see if he mesasures up... The debate shows how the rest of the campaign will frame up -- Ron Saxton using endorsements to show he is the right person for a change and Governor pointing out that it would be a leap of faith to conclude that Ron Saxton would be the kind of Governor that most middle class Oregonians can trust..."change agent versus risk"..this will dominate the time between now and November 7.
ServicesTed should push back on Ron with this topic, with his tax cut (measure 41) and the impact on services. Ted did not captialize on the opportunity.-Tim EducationThis is really an area of strength for Ron and he comes across with credibility in this area.... Len B Evolution?Major tap dance... Len B Beer and WineRon-no new taxes but expect the legislature to get one from these guys. Ron on visionRon looks and sounds good on the vision thing. Ted is showing more of a populist bent which resonates in a progressive state. Not sure about the action plan again.-Tim Spending IssuesThis is really the core of the Saxton message -- "no spending discipline" -- but wham!! The governor closes in on Ron's experience during his service on the School Board. Action Plan? not much of a shield when the governor is hitting Ron on his stance on things such as support of Measure 41 which would remove millions of dollars from state programs [like education] Len B Measure 41 & 48These are smaller government initiatives designed to starve the beast "state government". 48 has some real problems and both candidates oppose this issue. 41-is a tax cut that Ron supports and Ted does not. Saxton Agenda?How do we make government work...I know the action plan is a good prop, but it didn't deflect the core of the question on the conservative turn of the campaign Saxton has run...and it was a missed opportunity for the Governor, not to try and challenge Ron to defend the campaign he is run to the conservative part of the spectrum... Len B Special SessionImpressive run by the Gov on how the Special Session disproves that he has been dis-engaged...so Ron S comes back and tries to tag Governor with lack of leadership and scores points... The Social IssuesRon must walk carefully through this issue. Pulling out the action plan is a good block and bridge to another topic. Beer and Wine or WhineBoth are disgusted with the conduct and again Ron is back on Ted.-Tim No Gift Pledge Question"Culture of corruption" is a growing issue and may influence the way some peope vote -- nationally the issue of ethics and corruption is cutting against Republicans...this exchange seemed to be a toss-up LenB Ted on RecoveryTed needs to continue to talk about the ground he has made up during the last four years. It's effective and counters the "bad job" debate. Again, Ron is making it about Ted's leadership.-Tim SmilesI am impressed that when the Governor stops to smile and show some personality he really attracts and holds the viewer's attention -- it's his strong suit...Ron makes it very difficult for the viewer to be attracted to him and then pay attention to what he is saying Len B Base of SupportThe more Govenor K can talk about his support of policies that protect the middle income taxpayer...the more he is in the sweet-spot for his vote...I am not certain I see Ron S with a clear message for his "sweet-spot" Len B Wasteful Spending/CompetitionRon in effect wants to achieve reforms in collective bargaining. Public employees are a huge voter block and this should be an area that Ted hits Ron hard on. Again Ron comes back to Ted's record. - Tim TwinsTed and Ron are on the same page on this issue..-Tim Migrant Labor ExchangeIssue puts Ron on the defensive -- a place he can't stay if he wants to win the debate/election... The Cherry Farm ScandalThis issue won't stick unless Ted spends some money on TV about this issue. Ron is again pivoting it back on Ted. This is too complicated for the voters to easily understand. -Tim DHS-not goodDHS is a public eye sore from a political perspective. Won't be a big campaign issue. However, Ted is hitting Ron hard again about the truth-Tim Car EmissionsInteresting exchange -- this is an area of strength for Gov T even as it has cost him in fundraising on the campaign trail...Ron has to avoid a prolonged debate on this issue -- the idea of a West Coast alliance between the Governors of Washington, California [one a Republican one a Democrat] is really a strong area for Gov.... Len B Plan B debateIf Ron can establish that the Governor doesn't really have a plan B, he scores points on the issue of "competence"...but so far the Governor has been stronger in his presentation of his ability to get the legislature to act in the future -- and the more this is about the future, the more the Gov wins because he is more credible in dealing with the machinery of state government... Len One for the GreenRemember Ron gets money from the Auto Dealers and puts the burden of this issue on the Feds. This is stronger ground for Ted and a good opportunity to show his leadership. Ted is taking advantage on this question and putting it to Ron. Ron should move on-Tim 10/17 - Gubernatorial Debate: How the candidates faredThe final debate between the Republican and Democratic candidates for Governor takes place at KGW Television studios Tuesday, October 17th - live from 7 to 8 p.m. Political consultants Len Bergstein and Tim Phillips will be watching the debate unfold and will post their analysis of how the candidates fared here on kgw.com.
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